Carbon Direct's 2026 State of VCM Report: Buyer Hesitancy as a Bottleneck for CDR Scale-Up
Carbon Direct has released its flagship 2026 State of the Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) report, focusing on carbon dioxide removal (CDR). The report highlights a market poised for larger deployment and scale, but its future progress is at risk due to hesitant buyers.
While the infrastructure, science, and solutions are scale-ready, and policies and standards are in place to catalyze growth, the report warns that the future of CDR is uncertain due to a lack of buyers. Most organizations with 2030 climate targets have yet to engage in CDR procurement, which could accelerate progress if companies utilize removals to turn their climate plans into near-term action.
Sanna O'Connor-Morberg, Director of Strategy & Markets for Carbon Direct, emphasizes the urgency: "With 2030 just four years away, most organizations with climate targets have yet to engage in carbon dioxide removal procurement, presenting both an immediate need and a significant opportunity to catalyze the market at the required scale."
The report suggests that the inclusion of CDR in net-zero strategies and the creation of mandatory demand via compliance mechanisms could help spur motion. However, it warns that future progress is dependent on present demand.
Demand projections indicate that the CDR market could reach up to two gigatonnes by 2050, but current buyer activity is far lower. The removals market stands at only 8 million tonnes, covering just 0.4% of the two-gigatonne target.
Bodie Cabiyo, PhD, Director of Interdisciplinary Science for Carbon Direct, notes that early buyers are strategically positioning themselves with better pricing, supply security, and competitive advantage, while also enabling critical climate solutions to scale.
Despite the critical need for both emissions reductions and CDR, the report highlights that CDR currently represents only 6% of the VCM market. High-quality CDR supply is scarce, with fewer than 10% of projects meeting rigorous standards.
The report also observes the market distribution between nature-based solutions and high-durability approaches, noting that nature-based solutions account for 95% of spot credits, while durable pathways represent the remaining 5%.
Looking ahead, the report emphasizes that the critical CDR gap is not in market readiness but in translating corporate climate commitments into purchasing activity. This will define the availability and cost of CDR in the years ahead.
Carbon Direct invites readers to subscribe to their weekly newsletter for the latest news about the carbon industry.
